Will the power of compounding hurt India?
Will India & Mumbai survive the Covid-19 peak??
The recent spike in the number of cases reported from India seems to suggest that the peak which we had anticipated to come sooner has not yet come. Seven states account for 70% of the cases in India. Maharashtra accounts for a fourth (25%) of all India cases and 75% of all cases in Maharashtra are from Mumbai city – which has a population of 20 million!
Its a catch-22 situation…. curve can flatten only once the peak is reached… which does not seem to have reached in India as per the recent jump in daily cases …. so where is India heading to??
If there is no proper governance of the lock-down in India, and in the 7 states which have the most cases, we will be looking at an exponential growth of cases (see the image). These are scary numbers …. and can only be avoided if the government administrators strictly ensure that lock-down is enforced with support from the people.… no exceptions should be made at this point of time.
ENTIRE INDIA NEEDS TO BE LOCKED DOWN LIKE A RED ZONE AT THE SAME TIME.
Currently the ground reality is not that great, especially in Mumbai …. there is a shortage of healthcare workers and not enough isolation wards… the quality of government covid hospitals is not that great. In view of the systemic challenges, people should not be allowed to gather on account of any festivities or any other reason.
High risk states particularly need a complete lock-down without any activities allowed for at least two weeks right now. State borders need to be sealed; no movement/migration of people allowed at this point of time.
Unless authoritative measures are not taken, the power of compounding will hurt INDIA.
This is one prediction, I truly hope misses its mark….
Delhi Elections 2020 – It’s AAP all the way!
BJP is heading to one of its biggest ever defeat in assembly elections. AAP is poised to retain power and that too with an emphatic victory similar to 2015 where it routed BJP and had a dream victory. In 2020 also it is poised to win 65+ seats and increase its percentage to 58%.
In 2015 AAP won with an average victory margin of 25% ! The victory margin has been extremely high in majority of seats. Over 50% of seats have victory margin >20% and 33% of seats with margin greater than 30%. With such a support from the voters, AAP could only lose if its performance has been terrible in the last 5 years.
Delhi has always seen a bipolar election in its 29 years of electoral history. Out of those, Congress has ruled for 19 years while BJP for 5 and now AAP for 5 years. The emergence of AAP has seen the disappearance of Congress. Delhi has always looked for strong local leaders. With the demise of Shiela Dixit, Madan Lal Khurana & Sushma Swaraj, there is a vacuum of strong local leadership within BJP & INC.
Kejriwal has emerged as a strong leader who has changed the quality of life of Delhi people. He has revamped schools & doubled its capacity, provided free healthcare, free 20k litres of clean water, free & discounted electricity, free transport for women & better road infrastructure. Many of its schemes have reached out to majority of the people.
There is a strong connection which he has managed to build with the people, and he is here to stay…
All the good work he has done are factual and acknowledged by the people. In such a scenario, it is most likely that AAP should retain all of its 67 seats it won in 2015 and may possibly increase the tally too and again completely wipe out BJP from the National capital.
What has happened to BJP post 2013 when it emerged as the single largest party in the Delhi elections but could not come to power ?? 2013 onward was the emergence of the Modi-era & it was moving towards electoral invincibility. Modi led BJP to many victories across many states.
So, why is BJP losing ground now so rapidly at the local level ?
Modi’s emergence has actually crippled the local leadership of BJP. The local leaders have not been empowered enough to grow out of Modi’s shadow. Modi & Shah yet make all the decisions at the local level. The voters are now making clear distinction in their choice between Central & Local government. Hence it is imperative to develop strong local leaders. The Modi factor has itself led to weakening of its local leadership…
Delhi people are very clear in their choice of a leader…. Modi at centre because of the tough decisions he has taken on important National issues. At local level they have given a BIG THUMBS UP to Kejriwal who has made a huge difference at the grassroots level. In addition, Delhi police’s image has taken a beating and is now perceived as a being a dummy for the Central leadership. The demand on statehood for Delhi will accelerate from the people during AAP’s second term.
The good work that Kejriwal has done (along with many freebies given out) has overshadowed all other issues and most of the election issues which BJP is highlighting are actually non-issues for the voters. BJP is trying it’s best to destroy AAP’s image in the hope that it will win some seats. Shaheen baug, CAA, NRC are actually non-impactful issues to the voters. In fact, because of CAA-NRC, BJP may actually lose one of its 3 seats it has i.e. Mustafabad to AAP since this has a significant Muslim population and they had won it with a low margin of 6000 votes.
BJP needs a rework on its strategy if they need to keep winning at the local level. It needs to send back many of its central leaders to the states to strengthen the local infrastructure.
BJP will need to do a bit of de-Modi-tization within their own party !
This humiliating defeat to Kejriwal will be an eye-opener for BJP !
2019 LOK SABHA ELECTION PREDICTION
The Lok Sabha elections in 2019 is one of the most polarized elections in Indian history. BJP, aided by the media, has polarized the elections and social media has taken it to the next level. Poll-troll is at its peak right now.
The current scenario in India depicts elite polarization i.e. ruling party members have come close ideologically and there is almost no ideological overlap with opposition parties. This has led to creating an environment of popular polarization i.e. polarization amongst the mass voters. Let us understand why the BJP needs such a polarized election in order to come back to power.
In 2014, BJP vote share increased by 12.5% to 31.3% while INC vote share decreased by 9.5% to 19.5%. BJP became the only party in independent India to get a majority with the least ever vote share! BJP’s loyal vote bank is only around 20% … not enough to come back to power with a majority on their own. Their vote share is very low… hence they need to retain / increase if they want to come back to power.
So, BJP’s strategy is very simple…. Polarize the voters such that they will stay with them in 2019 i.e. convert their non-loyal voters to committed BJP voters. If they are successful in doing that, then a higher turnout may in fact help them and may not necessarily be an indication of anti-incumbency. In a polarized environment, higher turnout among the educated urban people will be beneficial to BJP while a lower turnout in rural areas will also benefit them. At the same time, INC is the only other party which has a pan-India voter base. Hence attacking Rahul & co. is the best strategy to convert INC loyal voters towards them given the growing weakness in Congress’s regional organizational structure & lack of credible image of Rahul.
What Modi has done is that even though we are a multi-party system, the elections is more like the US two-party system i.e. Modi v/s the rest. In such an environment, voters lay a lot of emphasis on social issues. This is where INC is focussing on issues like lack of jobs, farmer distress & intolerance. BJP is focussing on welfare of women & children, providing utilities (water, gas & electricity), healthy environment (toilets, medical care), women empowerment (Triple Talaq) and Government accountability and non-corruption.
Trump emerged victorious in 2016 despite his negative popularity. He was successfully able to influence the implicit mind of the voters to such an extent that the opinion polls showed a different result and what actually happened during polling was different.
This is what Modi is hoping he can do by appealing to the voter’s sub-conscious mind – publicly the voters may acknowledge that they are not happy with Modi but privately, they may vote for him. Providing national security & a decisive leadership are key motivators for people to vote despite the social issues (which is why Modi keeps saying ‘What did Congress do in 70 years about this?’)
Predicting the outcome for the 2019 elections is extremely challenging given the above environment in the country. We will need to consider social issues, popularity of leaders and the past & future voting history. A combination of all these factors are built into my prediction model.
For the past & future voting history, I conducted an opinion poll with a sample size of 3500 spread across India. Gamified version of questioning style was used where I tried to get the respondents to let go of cognitive aspects where they are not thinking about the decision-making process but are playing out scenarios that may be more honest and appropriate to actually how they make decisions.
Hence, a question like ‘Who will you vote for ? ‘ was rephrased to ‘If your life depended on the Government, who would you vote for in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections? ‘
Similarly for ‘How will you rate the performance of Government on scale of 0 to 100’ was replaced by ‘If you were a judge and had to rate the Modi Government’s performance from 2014 to 2019 on a scale of 0 to 100, what score will you give his government?’
For a rating of political leaders, question like ‘Please rate the following leaders on a scale of 1-7’ is replaced by ‘If the following politicians are restaurants and you have to rate their food quality, how many stars will you give to each of them? More stars indicate better quality.’
Let’s see what some of the quantitative findings of the poll are…
BJP’s performance rating has increased in its own voter base but has decreased in its non-voter base. This is a clear case of mass polarization.
Let us now see the popularity scores of key political leaders
The above data indicates the presence of extreme polarization. Modi is increasing his popularity within the BJP voter base but has lost ground with the non-BJP voter base. While Akhilesh has increased his popularity in his voter base category, the same cannot be said for his Mahagathbandhan partner, Mayawati. Hence, we may not witness a straightforward vote transfer from BSP to SP-BSP combine. Rahul’s popularity has increased slightly but is very low among the non-voter base. Hence, it is less likely that Modi voters will switch to Rahul. For BJP, this is good since anti-Modi votes may get split among other parties. Interestingly, Uddhav’s popularity has remained the same among his voters but has increased amongst his non-voters – a clear indication that MNS votebank will be transferred over to SS-BJP combine.
Let’s look at the switchers ….
An analysis of the claimed 2019 v/s 2014 votes received shows that BJP stands to retain it’s vote share. Opposition vote share will also witness an increase due to anti-Modi voters who missed to vote in 2014. Hence it is in the opposition’s interest to increase the turnout amongst such voters.
These voters will have negative impact on the seats won by BJP but it’s impact will not be significant because of lack of unity in the opposition.
55% of first-time voters are likely to vote for Modi. It is also seen that Modi has greater support from the women given the various government schemes which has helped them. Taking a clear stand on triple talaq is bound to fetch votes from Muslim women.
It is extremely difficult to predict in such a polarized environment. As per my calculations by each constituency, I would stick my neck out and put BJP at around 256 & NDA around 300. INC around 67 and UPA at 129.
There is always a but to these predictions …. If SP-BSP manage to do exceptionally well in UP and get close to 50 seats, then BJP will be struggling at around 225-230.
In such a scenario we will get kingmakers from the southern region (KCR, Jaganmohan Reddy, Deve Gowda ..!)
If you are brave enough… put in your money on Sensex once it falls closer to the weekend!
Cheers
Aneesh Laiwala
aneesh@insight3d.com
***2019 India Election Opinion Poll Tracker***
Most of the Election Opinion Polls are biased towards a particular political party. We never get a true picture on who is leading. This is the 2nd in our series of opinion poll tracker during this election season.
Please take this Gamified version of the political poll and see the results instantly. It will not take more than 2 minutes of your time. All your responses are anonymous. You can take the survey in the language of your choice.
Please forward to all your whatsapp group (Personal & Business). Thank you!
Third Front holds the Key in Chhattisgarh!
Raman Singh will not have it easy to make it fourth time lucky in Chhattisgarh…
This state is going to be purely a number’s game. One-third of the winners in 2013 have won with a vote margin of 5% or lesser. In 2013, BJP got 41% vote share while Congress got 40.3 % vote share. Difference between them had been marginal and a 1% vote shift would be the difference between winning & losing.
Anti-incumbency can be there for both BJP & Congress. Congress has 12 seats where they have won the elections in 2008 & 2013. Out of these there are 7 seats in which they have won all the three elections since 2003.
See the past trend results in the below table
This time a third front has entered the fray. BSP-Ajit Jogi-CPI combine may eat up into Congress vote share given that Jogi is ex-congressman himself and Mayawati can attract Dalit votes. If BSP-Jogi would have joined hand with Congress, then BJP would have most probably lost. BJP would be hoping that anti-BJP vote would go to the third front and not to Congress.
Raman Singh has not done very bad when it comes to development in the state. From time to time he has come up with many populist schemes, be it providing cheap rice or mid-day meals and smartphones for all students & women. He has got a relatively clean image.
For any party to defeat Raman Singh, they need to have a tall leader within their ranks. This is missing from the Congress. If BSP-Jogi combine manage to win 4+ seats, then they can be a game changer in Chhattisgarh and we can have a Karnataka like situation where the smaller two parties have the numbers to form the government if the BJP falls short of majority.
As per my prediction model, BJP & Congress both may get around 42-45 seats and BSP-Jogi between 5-7 seats.
If BJP loses, then it will have a tough time getting a majority in 2019 especially if the opposition parties get into a pre-poll alliance based on vote share % and not on their ideology…
It’s Shivraj Mama YET again for BJP! MP Assembly Election Prediction
Shivraj is all set to prove that he is the best pollster when it comes to MP elections. Time and again he has proven all wrong and managed to fight off anti-incumbency in his state. He is one of the tallest and most consistent leaders that BJP has and if not for Modi-politics, he could well have been the PM contender for BJP in 2014.
Digi-years of 1993 – 2003 were the worst in the history of MP & the people suffered a lot and are yet ashamed of that period under Congress rule. In contrast, Shivraj has provided electricity, water and road infrastructure to the entire state. Plus, he has literally taken up the challenge of ‘Swatch Bharat Abhiyan’ and has made Indore as the cleanest city in India and Madhya Pradesh as a model state in India for cleanliness, sanitation and waste management. There is some Farmer distress, but it is to be seen if that is more media driven and if the vote shift is enough to make Congress win. With past bad memories with Congress and Digvijay rule, the rural population has to decide who is less evil and more devil…
For Shivraj to lose, there needs to be a massive swing of vote (8%+) and that seems unlikely given the good work Shivraj he has done in the state.
Congress’s weak leadership & infighting should be instrumental in allowing CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan to come to power for the fourth consecutive time. Congress has projected three leaders in MP i.e. Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh – and they are not exactly brothers in arms.
For Digvijay, his Pan MP reach with Congress volunteers is his biggest asset and he can mobilize the cadre across the state, but is missing from the posters. Kamal Nath does not have the reach but is a shrewd strategist. Jyotiraditya Scindia on the other hand can influence only a small region and is seem more as a ‘Maha-Raja” and not a ‘Mass-Raja”.
For BJP to lose, the opposition will need to do a lot to sway the 70% literates in MP.
As per my prediction model, BJP should win in MP with around 124 seats.
RAJASHTAN IN PILOT MODE …. 2018 ELECTION PREDICTION
Rajasthan seems to be clearly going to the Congress party.
Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is perceived to be ‘authoritarianism’ in her style of working. Even with the biggest ever mandate in 2013, she could not fulfil many of the promises she had made to the people. This anger against her is so strong that even Modi-Amit Shah’s extensive campaigning will not make them win here.
Congress has got its strategy right in putting Sachin Pilot in control much ahead of the elections. Rajasthan was in need of a new face and that is what Congress gave them … a dynamic, charismatic young leader. He has succeeded in becoming a mass leader. Though not projected as a CM candidate, people are hopeful that if congress wins, Pilot will become the next CM.
For Congress, if they want to counter Modi in 2019, they will need to make Sachin Pilot as the CM otherwise the people will feel dejected and vote for Modi in 2019. Modi’s branding at the National level is yet very strong in Rajasthan.
For BJP, this may be a blessing in disguise and maybe a sacrifice at the assembly level in order to win big during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. They now have a reason to sideline Raje and project a new state leader Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore in 2019.
As per my prediction model, Congress should win with a Thumping majority and have their best ever showing in the Modi-era elections!
IPL 2018 – Why the statistics favor CSK to win IPL 2018 ….
Keeping emotions aside, CSK seems to be statistically favourite to win the 2018 IPL
If you look at the strike rate by batting order, CSK is significantly better in the Middle / Lower order. This is critical in crunch situations and especially in pressure situations.
2.
Between both the teams, 2 centuries scored in IPL 2018 are by CSK. This shows they have 2 batsmen to go the distance
If we see the stats for 50s scored, CSK has more players & better distribution across Top & Middle order. SRH is heavily dependent on their TOP order only. If you get Williamson & Dhawan out early, CSK is sure to win. They need to curtail their Top order
SRH has an advantage on the bowling front. Similar to batting department, they are heavily dependent upon Rashid & Kaul. The key will be the toss. SRH need to bat first and put up a score of 170+. With their bowling, score of 170+ in Finals would put them in a good position to win.
Dhoni Factor – Dhoni is one of the best minds and Captain of the game. CSK has been in 6 finals out of the 10 played so far & Dhoni has been in 7 finals. Last win for them has been in 2011 and this time Dhoni looks possessed to go for a comeback win. His experience will be invaluable to the team in the Finals…
Overall, CSK has got more valuable players who can win them games compared to SRH. Statistics are in favor of CSK to become the IPL 2018 Champions
Predictions 