***2019 India Election Opinion Poll Tracker***

Most of the Election Opinion Polls are biased towards a particular political party. We never get a true picture on who is leading. This is the 2nd in our series of opinion poll tracker during this election season.

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Election Opinion Poll

Third Front holds the Key in Chhattisgarh!

Raman Singh will not have it easy to make it fourth time lucky in Chhattisgarh…

This state is going to be purely a number’s game. One-third of the winners in 2013 have won with a vote margin of 5% or lesser. In 2013, BJP got 41% vote share while Congress got 40.3 % vote share. Difference between them had been marginal and a 1% vote shift would be the difference between winning & losing.

Anti-incumbency can be there for both BJP & Congress. Congress has 12 seats where they have won the elections in 2008 & 2013. Out of these there are 7 seats in which they have won all the three elections since 2003.

See the past trend results in the below table

This time a third front has entered the fray. BSP-Ajit Jogi-CPI combine may eat up into Congress vote share given that Jogi is ex-congressman himself and Mayawati can attract Dalit votes. If BSP-Jogi would have joined hand with Congress, then BJP would have most probably lost. BJP would be hoping that anti-BJP vote would go to the third front and not to Congress.

Raman Singh has not done very bad when it comes to development in the state. From time to time he has come up with many populist schemes, be it providing cheap rice or mid-day meals and smartphones for all students & women. He has got a relatively clean image.

For any party to defeat Raman Singh, they need to have a tall leader within their ranks. This is missing from the Congress. If BSP-Jogi combine manage to win 4+ seats, then they can be a game changer in Chhattisgarh and we can have a Karnataka like situation where the smaller two parties have the numbers to form the government if the BJP falls short of majority.

As per my prediction model, BJP & Congress both may get around 42-45 seats and BSP-Jogi between 5-7 seats.

If BJP loses, then it will have a tough time getting a majority in 2019 especially if the opposition parties get into a pre-poll alliance based on vote share % and not on their ideology…

It’s Shivraj Mama YET again for BJP! MP Assembly Election Prediction

Shivraj is all set to prove that he is the best pollster when it comes to MP elections. Time and again he has proven all wrong and managed to fight off anti-incumbency in his state. He is one of the tallest and most consistent leaders that BJP has and if not for Modi-politics, he could well have been the PM contender for BJP in 2014.

Digi-years of 1993 – 2003 were the worst in the history of MP & the people suffered a lot and are yet ashamed of that period under Congress rule. In contrast, Shivraj has provided electricity, water and road infrastructure to the entire state. Plus, he has literally taken up the challenge of ‘Swatch Bharat Abhiyan’ and has made Indore as the cleanest city in India and Madhya Pradesh as a model state in India for cleanliness, sanitation and waste management. There is some Farmer distress, but it is to be seen if that is more media driven and if the vote shift is enough to make Congress win. With past bad memories with Congress and Digvijay rule, the rural population has to decide who is less evil and more devil…

For Shivraj to lose, there needs to be a massive swing of vote (8%+) and that seems unlikely given the good work Shivraj he has done in the state.

Congress’s weak leadership & infighting should be instrumental in allowing CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan to come to power for the fourth consecutive time.  Congress has projected three leaders in MP i.e. Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh – and they are not exactly brothers in arms.

For Digvijay, his Pan MP reach with Congress volunteers is his biggest asset and he can mobilize the cadre across the state, but is missing from the posters. Kamal Nath does not have the reach but is a shrewd strategist. Jyotiraditya Scindia on the other hand can influence only a small region and is seem more as a ‘Maha-Raja” and not a ‘Mass-Raja”.

For BJP to lose, the opposition will need to do a lot to sway the 70% literates in MP.

As per my prediction model, BJP should win in MP with around 124 seats.

RAJASHTAN IN PILOT MODE …. 2018 ELECTION PREDICTION

Rajasthan seems to be clearly going to the Congress party.

Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is perceived to be ‘authoritarianism’ in her style of working. Even with the biggest ever mandate in 2013, she could not fulfil many of the promises she had made to the people. This anger against her is so strong that even Modi-Amit Shah’s extensive campaigning will not make them win here.

Congress has got its strategy right in putting Sachin Pilot in control much ahead of the elections. Rajasthan was in need of a new face and that is what Congress gave them … a dynamic, charismatic young leader. He has succeeded in becoming a mass leader. Though not projected as a CM candidate, people are hopeful that if congress wins, Pilot will become the next CM.

For Congress, if they want to counter Modi in 2019, they will need to make Sachin Pilot as the CM otherwise the people will feel dejected and vote for Modi in 2019. Modi’s branding at the National level is yet very strong in Rajasthan.

For BJP, this may be a blessing in disguise and maybe a sacrifice at the assembly level in order to win big during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. They now have a reason to sideline Raje and project a new state leader Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore in 2019.

As per my prediction model, Congress should win with a Thumping majority and have their best ever showing in the Modi-era elections!