UP 2017 ELECTION PREDICTION

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The 2017 UP elections has become a national event for Indians. For BJP it is critical that they win so that they can get the control over Rajya Sabha.

Akhilesh Yadav is hoping that the ‘orchestrated’ revolt within the SP will have a positive impact within their voter base and sideline the nepotism, goondaraj & corruption within the SP. This would project him as the young development face for UP & a new SP leader.

Muslim votes may probably be divided in these elections. They were not happy on how SP handled Muzzafarnagar riots and Dadri issue. Mulayam and Akhilesh visited the riot affected areas only 6 months after the incident. This has left the Muslim community angry with them. BSP has been silently trying to woo Muslims towards them by allocating at least 100 seats to them. There may be a spilt of votes between SP-INC, BSP & to some extent to BJP! BJP, by cleverly supporting the Triple Talaq issue, hopes that they get secret support from the Muslim women, especially in the urban regions. Even in 2014 general elections, they did get 7% of total Muslim votes.

It seems that SP is not confident of victory and hence they have aligned with Rahul Gandhi so that they can get the Muslim votes of the Congress. This seems to be a desperate move especially since Congress has recently only been a liability to the other parties with whom they have tied up. We will soon know if allowing Congress to piggyback on them is going to benefit SP or not.

BJP is confident that Modi can recreate the magic of 2014 which gave them a record of 72 LS seats in UP! Amit Shah was the architect of the 2014 victory and he is now hoping that they repeat it again in 2017.  He has been focusing in strengthening the BJP at the grassroot level. There has been meticulous planning in allocating seats in each assembly. They have also managed to attract defectors from other parties.

BJP knows that they have got overwhelming support on the demonetization drive & is hoping that it will help translate into votes. Also there is a significant population from UP in the Indian Armed Forces and hence the Surgical strikes done by India on Pakistan will help them further.  The UP elections is no longer at a regional level but is being fought at an National level.

As per my prediction model, it seems that BJP will get close to 2/3rd of majority in UP. BJP will win with 247 seats (+- 5%) and come to power.  BSP & SP would be very close 2nd & 3rd. Congress as expected, will be insignificant & on decline….

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US 2016 ELECTION PREDICTION

The US Presidential election is at an exciting stage & it is predicted to have a close finish. It has been the most bizzare & crazy electioneering process. Never has there been an election where one of the candidates has had the most negative sentiment, but somehow has influenced the implicit mind of the voters to get nominated and be a strong Presidential candidate!

There are various polls with differing results. Clinton seems to be having an edge in most of the polls. Trump, it seems has peaked at the right time.S

I have taken a shot at predicting the US elections.  My prediction is not based on survey polling. It is a combination of applying statistics to 2012 poll results, social media sentiments, Digital branding of political leaders & qualitative talks with few US citizens.

Swing states seems to be Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virgina (which account of 96 electoral votes).

As per my predictions.. Trump would be the winner with 300 votes!

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Final Results

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Table 1

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Table 2

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Table 3

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Table 4

As the world’s largest Democracy moves towards the last phase of polling, let us see the predictions on who will be able to form the next government in India.

In the history of Indian politics, this election has been the most fiercely fought between the ruling Indian National Congress (NDA) & the Hindutva Bhartiya Janata Party (UPA). Many media houses and political partied have spent crores to rupees in doing election surveys & predicting the final outcome.

My prediction is not based on surveys. It is a combination of applying statistics to 2009 poll results,social media sentiments, branding of political leaders ,qualitative talks with people from various regions in India & most importantly capturing the political buzz among the common man.

As seen below…NDA should comfortably be well over the required majority! They should get close to 300 seats. Congress is headed for a complete rout. BJP will on its own get close to 240-250 seats.