PUNJAB 2017 PREDICTION
2017 is going to be interesting for Indian Politics. Keys states are going to elections and it is perceived that the election results would be a kind of referendum on Narendra Modi’s mid-term performance. Punjab elections are very complex. It has drug issues, lack of development by SAD & corruption by the local SAD candidates. There is a high degree of anti-incumbency for SAD. AAP is on the rise & INC is trying to revive its fortunes.
This election is going to be a mix of emotions for the Punjab voters…. Should it vote SAD out? Do they continue to vote for them looking at the performance of Narendra Modi ? Will Kejriwal be a fiasco like he is perceived to be in Delhi?
As per my analysis of the 2012 election results, 2014 LS results & social media analysis, it seems that AAP would emerge as the winner… but not get a majority to form the government. SAD+BJP would be at 2nd position & mathematically would not allow them to form a government. Congress at 3rd position would have to make a decision if they would get into an outside support to AAP to form a government & use it to capitalize at the National level for 2019…
As per my predictions the next government in Punjab would be that of AAP along with Congress as outside support.
GOA 2017 PREDICTION
Goa is heading for a split verdict with no clear majority for any party. The key over here are the independents. BJP though will be the largest party, will not get a majority. Looks like a clear horse-trading scenario will arise. If BJP cannot muster the required support, AAP can be in a position to form a government with outside support from Congress!