Delhi Elections 2020 – It’s AAP all the way!

 

BJP is heading to one of its biggest ever defeat in assembly elections. AAP is poised to retain power and that too with an emphatic victory similar to 2015 where it routed BJP and had a dream victory. In 2020 also it is poised to win 65+ seats and increase its percentage to 58%.

In 2015 AAP won with an average victory margin of 25% ! The victory margin has been extremely high in majority of seats. Over 50% of seats have victory margin >20% and 33% of seats with margin greater than 30%. With such a support from the voters, AAP could only lose if its performance has been terrible in the last 5 years.

Delhi has always seen a bipolar election in its 29 years of electoral history. Out of those, Congress has ruled for 19 years while BJP for 5 and now AAP for 5 years. The emergence of AAP has seen the disappearance of Congress. Delhi has always looked for strong local leaders. With the demise of Shiela Dixit, Madan Lal Khurana & Sushma Swaraj, there is a vacuum of strong local leadership within BJP & INC.

Kejriwal has emerged as a strong leader who has changed the quality of life of Delhi people. He has revamped schools & doubled its capacity, provided free healthcare, free 20k litres of clean water,  free & discounted electricity, free transport for women & better road infrastructure. Many of its schemes have reached out to majority of the people.

There is a strong connection which he has managed to build with the people, and he is here to stay…

All the good work he has done are factual and acknowledged by the people. In such a scenario, it is most likely that AAP should retain all of its 67 seats it won in 2015 and may possibly increase the tally too and again completely wipe out BJP from the National capital.

What has happened to BJP post 2013 when it emerged as the single largest party in the Delhi elections but could not come to power ?? 2013 onward was the emergence of the Modi-era & it was moving towards electoral invincibility. Modi led BJP to many victories across many states.

So, why is BJP losing ground now so rapidly at the local level ?

Modi’s emergence has actually crippled the local leadership of BJP. The local leaders have not been empowered enough to grow out of Modi’s shadow.  Modi & Shah yet make all the decisions at the local level. The voters are now making clear distinction in their choice between Central & Local government. Hence it is imperative to develop strong local leaders. The Modi factor has itself led to weakening of its local leadership…

Delhi people are very clear in their choice of a leader…. Modi at centre because of the tough decisions he has taken on important National issues. At local level they have given a BIG THUMBS UP to Kejriwal who has made a huge difference at the grassroots level. In addition, Delhi police’s image has taken a beating and is now perceived as a being a dummy for the Central leadership. The demand on statehood for Delhi will accelerate from the people during AAP’s second term.

The good work that Kejriwal has done (along with many freebies given out) has overshadowed all other issues and most of the election issues which BJP is highlighting are actually non-issues for the voters. BJP is trying it’s best to destroy AAP’s image in the hope that it will win some seats. Shaheen baug, CAA, NRC are actually non-impactful issues to the voters. In fact, because of CAA-NRC, BJP may actually lose one of its 3 seats it has i.e. Mustafabad to AAP since this has a significant Muslim population and they had won it with a low margin of 6000 votes.

BJP needs a rework on its strategy if they need to keep winning at the local level. It needs to send back many of its central leaders to the states to strengthen the local infrastructure.

BJP will need to do a bit of de-Modi-tization within their own party !

This humiliating defeat to Kejriwal will be an eye-opener for BJP !

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Third Front holds the Key in Chhattisgarh!

Raman Singh will not have it easy to make it fourth time lucky in Chhattisgarh…

This state is going to be purely a number’s game. One-third of the winners in 2013 have won with a vote margin of 5% or lesser. In 2013, BJP got 41% vote share while Congress got 40.3 % vote share. Difference between them had been marginal and a 1% vote shift would be the difference between winning & losing.

Anti-incumbency can be there for both BJP & Congress. Congress has 12 seats where they have won the elections in 2008 & 2013. Out of these there are 7 seats in which they have won all the three elections since 2003.

See the past trend results in the below table

This time a third front has entered the fray. BSP-Ajit Jogi-CPI combine may eat up into Congress vote share given that Jogi is ex-congressman himself and Mayawati can attract Dalit votes. If BSP-Jogi would have joined hand with Congress, then BJP would have most probably lost. BJP would be hoping that anti-BJP vote would go to the third front and not to Congress.

Raman Singh has not done very bad when it comes to development in the state. From time to time he has come up with many populist schemes, be it providing cheap rice or mid-day meals and smartphones for all students & women. He has got a relatively clean image.

For any party to defeat Raman Singh, they need to have a tall leader within their ranks. This is missing from the Congress. If BSP-Jogi combine manage to win 4+ seats, then they can be a game changer in Chhattisgarh and we can have a Karnataka like situation where the smaller two parties have the numbers to form the government if the BJP falls short of majority.

As per my prediction model, BJP & Congress both may get around 42-45 seats and BSP-Jogi between 5-7 seats.

If BJP loses, then it will have a tough time getting a majority in 2019 especially if the opposition parties get into a pre-poll alliance based on vote share % and not on their ideology…

It’s Shivraj Mama YET again for BJP! MP Assembly Election Prediction

Shivraj is all set to prove that he is the best pollster when it comes to MP elections. Time and again he has proven all wrong and managed to fight off anti-incumbency in his state. He is one of the tallest and most consistent leaders that BJP has and if not for Modi-politics, he could well have been the PM contender for BJP in 2014.

Digi-years of 1993 – 2003 were the worst in the history of MP & the people suffered a lot and are yet ashamed of that period under Congress rule. In contrast, Shivraj has provided electricity, water and road infrastructure to the entire state. Plus, he has literally taken up the challenge of ‘Swatch Bharat Abhiyan’ and has made Indore as the cleanest city in India and Madhya Pradesh as a model state in India for cleanliness, sanitation and waste management. There is some Farmer distress, but it is to be seen if that is more media driven and if the vote shift is enough to make Congress win. With past bad memories with Congress and Digvijay rule, the rural population has to decide who is less evil and more devil…

For Shivraj to lose, there needs to be a massive swing of vote (8%+) and that seems unlikely given the good work Shivraj he has done in the state.

Congress’s weak leadership & infighting should be instrumental in allowing CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan to come to power for the fourth consecutive time.  Congress has projected three leaders in MP i.e. Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh – and they are not exactly brothers in arms.

For Digvijay, his Pan MP reach with Congress volunteers is his biggest asset and he can mobilize the cadre across the state, but is missing from the posters. Kamal Nath does not have the reach but is a shrewd strategist. Jyotiraditya Scindia on the other hand can influence only a small region and is seem more as a ‘Maha-Raja” and not a ‘Mass-Raja”.

For BJP to lose, the opposition will need to do a lot to sway the 70% literates in MP.

As per my prediction model, BJP should win in MP with around 124 seats.

PUNJAB & GOA ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2017 PREDICTION

PUNJAB 2017 PREDICTION

2017 is going to be interesting for Indian Politics. Keys states are going to elections and it is perceived that the election results would be a kind of referendum on Narendra Modi’s mid-term performance. Punjab elections are very complex. It has drug issues, lack of development by SAD & corruption by the local SAD candidates. There is a high degree of anti-incumbency for SAD. AAP is on the rise & INC is trying to revive its fortunes.

This election is going to be a mix of emotions for the Punjab voters…. Should it vote SAD out? Do they continue to vote for them looking at the performance of Narendra Modi ? Will Kejriwal be a fiasco like he is perceived to be in Delhi?

As per my analysis of the 2012 election results, 2014 LS results & social media analysis, it seems that AAP would emerge as the winner… but not get a majority to form the government. SAD+BJP would be at 2^nd position & mathematically would not allow them to form a government. Congress at 3^rd position would have to make a decision if they would get into an outside support to AAP to form a government & use it to capitalize at the National level for 2019…

As per my predictions the next government in Punjab would be that of AAP along with Congress as outside support.

 

GOA 2017 PREDICTION

Goa is heading for a split verdict with no clear majority for any party. The key over here are the independents. BJP though will be the largest party, will not get a majority. Looks like a clear horse-trading scenario will arise. If BJP cannot muster the required support, AAP can be in a position to form a government with outside support from Congress!