Will India & Mumbai survive the Covid-19 peak??
The recent spike in the number of cases reported from India seems to suggest that the peak which we had anticipated to come sooner has not yet come. Seven states account for 70% of the cases in India. Maharashtra accounts for a fourth (25%) of all India cases and 75% of all cases in Maharashtra are from Mumbai city – which has a population of 20 million!
Its a catch-22 situation…. curve can flatten only once the peak is reached… which does not seem to have reached in India as per the recent jump in daily cases …. so where is India heading to??
If there is no proper governance of the lock-down in India, and in the 7 states which have the most cases, we will be looking at an exponential growth of cases (see the image). These are scary numbers …. and can only be avoided if the government administrators strictly ensure that lock-down is enforced with support from the people.… no exceptions should be made at this point of time.
ENTIRE INDIA NEEDS TO BE LOCKED DOWN LIKE A RED ZONE AT THE SAME TIME.
Currently the ground reality is not that great, especially in Mumbai …. there is a shortage of healthcare workers and not enough isolation wards… the quality of government covid hospitals is not that great. In view of the systemic challenges, people should not be allowed to gather on account of any festivities or any other reason.
High risk states particularly need a complete lock-down without any activities allowed for at least two weeks right now. State borders need to be sealed; no movement/migration of people allowed at this point of time.
Unless authoritative measures are not taken, the power of compounding will hurt INDIA.
This is one prediction, I truly hope misses its mark….
Predictions 