PUNJAB & GOA ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2017 PREDICTION

PUNJAB 2017 PREDICTION

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2017 is going to be interesting for Indian Politics. Keys states are going to elections and it is perceived that the election results would be a kind of referendum on Narendra Modi’s mid-term performance. Punjab elections are very complex. It has drug issues, lack of development by SAD & corruption by the local SAD candidates. There is a high degree of anti-incumbency for SAD. AAP is on the rise & INC is trying to revive its fortunes.

This election is going to be a mix of emotions for the Punjab voters…. Should it vote SAD out? Do they continue to vote for them looking at the performance of Narendra Modi ? Will Kejriwal be a fiasco like he is perceived to be in Delhi?

As per my analysis of the 2012 election results, 2014 LS results & social media analysis, it seems that AAP would emerge as the winner… but not get a majority to form the government. SAD+BJP would be at 2nd position & mathematically would not allow them to form a government. Congress at 3rd position would have to make a decision if they would get into an outside support to AAP to form a government & use it to capitalize at the National level for 2019…

As per my predictions the next government in Punjab would be that of AAP along with Congress as outside support.

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GOA 2017 PREDICTION

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Goa is heading for a split verdict with no clear majority for any party. The key over here are the independents. BJP though will be the largest party, will not get a majority. Looks like a clear horse-trading scenario will arise. If BJP cannot muster the required support, AAP can be in a position to form a government with outside support from Congress!

 

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