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US 2016 ELECTION PREDICTION

The US Presidential election is at an exciting stage & it is predicted to have a close finish. It has been the most bizzare & crazy electioneering process. Never has there been an election where one of the candidates has had the most negative sentiment, but somehow has influenced the implicit mind of the voters to get nominated and be a strong Presidential candidate!

There are various polls with differing results. Clinton seems to be having an edge in most of the polls. Trump, it seems has peaked at the right time.S

I have taken a shot at predicting the US elections.  My prediction is not based on survey polling. It is a combination of applying statistics to 2012 poll results, social media sentiments, Digital branding of political leaders & qualitative talks with few US citizens.

Swing states seems to be Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virgina (which account of 96 electoral votes).

As per my predictions.. Trump would be the winner with 300 votes!

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Final Results

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Table 1

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Table 2

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Table 3

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Table 4

6 thoughts on “US 2016 ELECTION PREDICTION

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  4. Aneesh, you have made a fantastic forecast! The methodology for USA is very eclectic and I will be interested to understand the calculations in it. Furthermore, I want know whether the calculation or formula was similar to your Indian forecast of 2014.

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    • Thanks Jairaj. The philosphy is similar for both wherein you take the previous election raw database as a starting point to start off. The weights/formulae would differ a bit for India and US. A lot is to do with digital branding of the key players/parties. The current pollsters have got Brexit, US elections wrong because they have been following the traditional ways of predicting elections and have not incorpprated the digital landscape in their predictions. Social listening is extremely important now and needs to be weighted in these predictions along with the quanti data.
      We can discuss seperately on this.

      My next goal would be to apply it to the UP polls !

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